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Estimates of Men Eligible for Militia, [on or after 22 October 1805]

Estimates of Men Eligible for Militia

[on or after 22 Oct. 1805]

of the age of 18 & under 45. militia law.

of 16. & under 26.		384,554
		census
of 26. & under 45		423,836

of 106,951 persons of 16. & under 26 by Buffon 1 22,362 are in their 17th. or 18th year

then as 106,951 : 22,362 :: 384,554 :	80,405	in their 17th. or 18th. year in US
subtract this from	384,554
remain of 18 & under 26.	304,149

	Buffon
from	106,951	persons of 16. & under 26
subtract	22,362	who are in their 17th. or 18th. year
remain	84,589	of the age of 18. & under 26. by Buffon

	Buffon		US		Buffon
then as	84,589	:	304,149	::	11014	:	x	=	those in their 19th. year in US.

then x =	304,149	× 11,014 = 3.5957 × 11,014 or say 3.6 × 11014
	84,589

those in their	19th.	year are 3.6 ×	11,014 =	39,591
	20th.		10,919 =	39,250
	21st.		10,768 =	38,706
	22d.		10,675 =	38,373
	23d.		10,514 =	37,793
	24th.		10,380 =	37,312
	25th.		10,259 =	36,876
	26th.		10,060 =	36,161	304,062

Buffon’s table presents2 168,200 persons of 26 & under 45

our census presents 423,836 of the same ages

	Buffon		US		in 27th. y
then as	168,200	:	423,836	::	9926	:	423,836	×	9926 = 2.52 × 9926
							168,200

those in their	27th.	year are 2.52 ×	9,926. =	25,013
	28th		9,793 =	24,678
	29th		9,640 =	24,292
	30th.		9,544 =	24,051
	31st.		9,307 =	23,453
	32d.		9,245 =	23,297
	33d.		9,045 =	22,792
	34th.		8,912 =	22,457
	35th.	84,182	8,770 =	22,100
	36th.		8,515 =	21,458
	37th.		8,328 =	20,986

	38th.		8,176 =	20,603
	39th.		8,016 =	20,200
	40th.		7,929 =	19,980
	41st.		7,525 =	18,962
	42d.		7,444 =	18,758
	43d.		7,252 =	18,275
	44th.		7,124 =	17,952
	45th.		7,008 =	17,660
	46th.	84,018	6,701 =	16,886	423853
		168,200			727,915

MS (DLC: TJ Papers, 232:41528); undated; entirely in TJ’s hand; on verso of a clipped address sheet with remnant text probably addressed to TJ in Washington by an unidentified hand.

militia law: see Dearborn to TJ, 22 Oct.

As he had on previous occasions, TJ in compiling these demographic calculations was relying on a technique and some figures provided by the Comte de Buffon, who in a supplement to his Histoire naturelle, générale et particulière used mortality tables for several French parishes to calculate the number of persons for each age year. In his response to Dearborn on 23 Oct., TJ sent figures for militia-eligible ages, using as he did above a coefficient of 3.6 for ages 19 to 26 and a coefficient of 2.52 for ages 27 to 45. In a very similar set of calculations, likely done around the same time, he applied a single coefficient of 2.88 for all ages (MS in same, 232:41529, on verso of sheet addressed by Dearborn: “The President”; Georges Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon, Oeuvres complètes de M. le Cte. de Buffon, 62 vols. [Paris, 1774-79], 4:385-418; Sowerby, description begins E. Millicent Sowerby, comp., Catalogue of the Library of Thomas Jefferson, Washington, D.C., 1952–59, 5 vols. description ends No. 1024; Vol. 15:394, 398n; Vol. 31:293–5).

1. Preceding two words interlined.

2. Preceding three words interlined in place of “of.”

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Source Project: Jefferson Papers
Title: Estimates of Men Eligible for Militia, [on or after 22 October 1805]
Author: Jefferson, Thomas
Date: 22 October 1805

Reference

Cite as: “Estimates of Men Eligible for Militia, [on or after 22 October 1805],” Founders Online, National Archives, https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-47-02-0469. [Original source: The Papers of Thomas Jefferson, vol. 47, 6 July to 19 November 1805, ed. James P. McClure et al. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2023, pp. 494–496.]