I am anxious to convey to you, if I can, in as Strong a light as that in which I see myself, the Impossibility of our doing any thing satisfactory with this Nation, especially under this Ministry, that the States may neither neglect nor delay any Measure, which they would judge necessary or expedient, upon the certainty that England will not alter her Conduct. In order to do this, I must be allowed to write freely, things which Congress ought to know, but to keep secret.—1 I know how much I expose myself, but as I have hitherto made it my rule as much as I could to conceal nothing which I thought necessary to be known, whatever might be the consequence to myself—I shall not now begin a new System and shall only request that a reasonable Caution may be observed not to injure a Man, merely for discharging a disagreable part of his duty.

The King I really think is the most accomplished Courtier in his Dominions—with all the Affability of Charles the second, he has all the domestic Virtues and Regularity of Conduct of Charles the first—He is the greatest Talker in the World, and has a tenacious Memory, stored with Resources of small Talk, concerning all the little Things of Life, which are inexhaustible. But so much of his Time is, and has been consumed in this, that he is in all the great Affairs of Society and Government as weak, as far as I can judge, as we ever understood him to be in America—He is also, as obstinate. The unbounded popularity acquired by his Temperance and Facetiousness, added to the Splendor of his Dignity, gives him such a continual Feast of Flattery, that he thinks all he does is right, and he pursues his own Ideas with a Firmness, which would become the best System of Action—He has a Pleasure in his own Will & Way, without which he would be miserable, which seems to be the true Principle upon which he has always chosen and rejected ministers—He has an habitual Contempt of Patriots & Patriotism, at least for what are called in this Country by those Names, and takes a Delight in mortifying all who have any Reputation for such Qualities, and in supporting those, who have a counter Character. Upon this Principle only can I account for the Number of Tories which were forced into the Administration of the Earl of Shelburne, the Duke of Portland and of Mr. Pitt, and for the immoderate Attachment to american Refugees which has appeared in all of them.

Mr. Pitt is very young, Sir, he has discovered Abilities & Firmness upon some Occasions—but I have never seen in him any Evidence of greater Talents, than I have seen in Members of Congress, and in other scenes of Life in America at his age—I have not yet seen any decided Proofs of Principle or Patriotism or Virtue; on the contrary there are many Symptoms of the want of these Qualities, without which no Statesman ever yet appeared uniformly great, or wrought out any memorable Salvation for any Country—in American Affairs he has vibrated Credit as a Pendulum, and no one can yet guess when he will have fixed—his attention appears to have been chiefly given to two Objects—preserving Tranquillity & raising the Stocks—his Attention to these would have been laudable, if he had not neglected others equally essential in the end, tho’ not so urgent for the present Period. The Discontents of the Nation arising from their late Disappointments, Disgraces & Humiliations, as well as the pressure of Taxes, would have broken out into Seditions, if the Ministers had not studiously avoided every Thing which could raise a Clamour or operate forcibly upon popular Passions, and if the Stocks could not have been supported, all would have been Distraction at once—With all his Care he has barely escaped from more furious Tumults at the Expense of a few Stones thrown at his Carriage and a few Executions in Effigy. The Stocks he has raised and if he can keep them up they will support him, and intoxicate the Nation to such a Degree that I presume it will be impossible for him to pursue that System towards America & Ireland, which is indispensable for the compleat preservation of the remainder of the Empire.—

No Briton would deserve the character of a Statesman without a comprehensive View of the Interests of the Nation relative to their Liberties & Form of Government, relative to their Manufactures, Commerce & Navigation, relative to their foreign Dominions in Asia, Africa, America and in Europe, relatively to all the other Powers of Europe especially their ancient Enemies who have always endangered existence, I mean the Crown of Bourbon, and their ancient Friends who have assisted in supporting them, and rearing up their Wealth & Power, I mean the Dutch & the United States of America, and all these relatively to the Interest of Posterity & future Ages—But I have not seen the least Appearances of any Man in the three Kingdoms, among the Men in Power, who answers this Description.—

Landsdown is the most like it, but he is suspected—his selfishness is acknowledged & his Influence far from great. The Posts upon our Frontier give me great Uneasiness—The Ministers and People are—the Chancellor, Mr. Dundas, Mr. Jenkinson & Lord Gower, being of the old Set of King’s friends it may be easily supposed that they are Masters of his Character, that they think and feel like him and consequently that they embarrass Mr. Pitt whenever his Principles interfere with the Kings. To council probably is owing the late Accession to the League in Germany, which the Chancellor of the Exchequer is thought to have opposed—to the same Cause we may ascribe the undecided Conduct towards Holland, where Sir James Harris is as compleat a Cypher as the Baron de Lynden and I have the Honor to be at St. James’s.—

The King has been amused by his old Deceivers who are very much alike in America, Holland & Ireland, by Assurances that the Prince of Orange and his Party would get the upper Hand, and that the Populace would rise to DeWitt2 the Patriots. Under this fond Delusion, the Time has been dreamed away, and those Offers were delayed until they were too late to have any Effect, which, if they had been made in Season, would have preserved the Friendship or at least the Neutrality of the Dutch to this Country—

Lord Cambden & the Duke of Richmond—if they ever had any just Notions of the relation between England & America, are become soured by the Company they keep, and if they are not inimical they are at least peevish & fretful on every Subject that concerns us. Lord Carmarthen is rich and of high rank, very civil & obliging, but is not enough of a Man of Business to have Influence in the Cabinet, or to project or conduct any Thing. Lord Sidney with less wealth and a lower Rank has all the Parts of the same Character. If these Traits of Characters are just, you will easily be convinced, that we cannot expect from the present Ministry, any reasonable Arrangement with America for some Time.—

If we look to Opposition, we see no better Prospects—Lord North is supposed to have great Influence, but how? by being at the Head of the landed Interest, which is but another Term for the Tory Interest—If he should depart from their System he would lose all Consideration.—Mr. Fox has never been steady in American politicks, & he has not at present the Spirit to take any decided Part, The Marquis of Lansdown would be more liberal, but he has no Chance to come in, & if he had, he would not be able to carry any Plan into Execution, so numerous & violent from all Quarters would be the Opposition to him.—The Marquis of Buckingham to some good Opinions of American affairs Commerce but altho’ he is celebrated for minute Details of Information in American Affairs, by all I can learn of him, he has lost his Judgement and the true System, in the Chaos of this very Minutie, and he is extremely odious to great Multitudes of the People.—

Add to all these unfavorable considerations, that the Stocks are at a great height and the Nation consequently in high Spirits, as they have now Evidence, they think, that their Commerce flourishes, and their Credit is established without a Treaty with the United States, and without opening the West Indies or Canada, Nova Scotia & Newfoundland to us, without taking off the alien Duty upon Oil, or admitting our ready built Ships for Sale—they will not now think necessary to do any of these Things. The general Opinion is, that an Act of Parliament will be made, at the ensuing Parliament, placing the United States upon the footing of the most favored Nation, and then let Things take their Course—let the United States do as they please, lay on Duties or Prohibitions or make Navigation Acts, as they judge proper.

France is not idle amidst all this—the Language they hold is that of perpetual & universal Peace—their Ambassadors in all the Courts of Europe speak in this Stile. The Corps diplomatick here have it familiarly in their Mouths, that the Courts of London and Versailles have now the best Dispositions towards each other, and that Fear is every prospect of a long Peace between them—And there is such a Fund of Gullybility in this Nation, that these Lullabies soothe them into perfect Security. Indeed it is possible the Peace may be maintained for some Years—long enough for the English to get a little Money to go to War again—but if at the end of fifteen or twenty Years, the Navies of France & Holland shall be pitted against that of Great Britain, and especially if the United States shall join their Privateers & Aids to the Confederacy, the Crisis of the british Empire will then be compleat, & its Destruction certain—Some Men see, but Posterity & Futurity, tho’ not very distant, appear to be less attended to in this Country at present, than in any other in the World—present Advantage is all they aim at—present Evil is all they hope to shun—Are so assured of Peace with all their Neighbours in Europe, that they hold all we can do in Indifference—They think that if we should raise an Army & take those Posts, as we have a right to do, it would not oblige them to go to War with us—but if we should march an Army to Quebec and take it, and another to Nova-Scotia & take that, it would be no great Harm to them—if we should fit out Privateers against their Trade, they could easily send a Line of Frigates along our Coast, that would do us more Harm, so that they are quite easy—but they rely upon it, that we shall not raise an Army to take the Posts—the expense and difficulty they know will be great, and therefore, they think they may play with us as long as they please. The Refugees are doing all they can to persuade the King and Ministry to build a Fleet of armed Ships upon the Lakes, and to negotiate with all the Indian Nations in order to attach them to their Side. If these People can prevail, our Posts will not be evacuated until this new System is accomplished. The Resolutions of some of the UD. States staying proceedings at Law for old Debts, and some other Resolutions concerning the Tories, represented to have been in some Instances counter to the Treaty, will be the Pretence. In short, Sir, I am like to be as insignificant here as you can imagine—I shall be treated as I have been, with all the Civility that is shewn to other foreign Ministers, but shall do nothing—I shall not even be answered, at least this is my Opinion—but Congress will no doubt insist upon an Answer—but perhaps it may be most convenient to wait till the Session of Parliament is over, that we may have a full Knowledge of their Designs. It is most certain that what is called high Language, which you & I have heard so much of in the Course of our Lives, would be misplaced here at this Time. It would not be answered with high Language, but with what would be more disagreeable and perplexing, with a contemptuous Silence.—

To borrow an Expression from the late Governor Bernard, I find myself at the end of my Tether—no Step that I can take—no Language I can hold will do any good or indeed much Harm. It is Congress and the Legislatures of the States who must deliberate and act at present.—

The only System they can pursue to help themselves, is, to compleat their Regulations for the Encouragement of their own Manufactures and Navigation, to consider of more intimate commercial Connections with France & other Nations of Europe, to push their Trade to East Indies, and perhaps to extend their political with France and Holland. How far it will be wise to go in these Projects, I pretend not to judge, but I hope they will proceed with Caution and Deliberation. The United States stand on high Ground at present, and they will consider whether it would not even be descending to from any closer political Connections at present—They are certainly at present on “advantageous Ground” if they can unite in a System, if not, they must trust to the Chapter of Accidents.—I am Dr. Sir with great regard Your most Humble Sert.